A victory for Jokowi and dynastic politics? Experts weigh in on Indonesia’s 2024 regional elections

Indonesians voted for their local leaders on Wednesday in their first simultaneous regional elections (pilkada) in 545 provinces, regencies and municipalities across the country.

As the dust settles on the electoral contestations, we ask experts for their initial assessments of different aspects of the elections. Which oligarchic alliance is “winning” in these elections? Is dynastic politics gaining ground across the nation? Did all the single candidates win against the blank boxes? Did more people go the polls compared the previous election rounds?

Arya Fernandes on pilkada and elite politics

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has suffered another defeat in its battle for dominance against its former member, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, in Central Java, the party’s traditional stronghold. Jokowi, who aggressively campaigned for his preferred gubernatorial candidate pair, Ahmad Luthfi and Taj Yasin, played a significant role in preventing PDI-P-backed candidate pair, Andika Perkasa and Hendrar Prihadi, from winning.

However, the PDI-P is expected to win the high-stakes election in Jakarta. Its candidate pair, Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, won 50 percent of the vote, according to several quick count results. The Jokowi-backed candidate pair, Ridwan Kamil and Suswono, who garnered 39 percent of the vote, have yet to concede defeat and have suggested that there would be a runoff election. That said, it is highly likely that the Pramono-Rano pair will win the election in a single round.

The election results are likely to prolong the political rivalry between the PDI-P and Jokowi. Given the depth and extent of the conflict, a reconciliation between the two sides appears nearly impossible at this stage. In fact, tensions may escalate further in the coming years, especially if Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, decides to run again in the 2029 presidential elections.

It appears that Jokowi has successfully strengthened his relationship with Prabowo to secure political support amidst his rivalry with PDIP. The pilkada results have shown that Jokowi remains influential, with some of his allies still holding key cabinet positions. This situation puts Prabowo in a difficult position, as he seeks to avoid direct confrontation with PDIP.

Yoes C. Kenawas on pilkada and dynastic politics  

The results of this year’s pilkada have shown that dynastic politics remains an integral part of Indonesian politics, even though some prominent dynasties have suffered defeats.

The Banten gubernatorial election, for example, saw the upset defeat of Airin Rachmi Diany. Airin is a member of the infamous Rau Dynasty of Banten, which has dominated the province since 2005. The former South Tangerang mayor garnered only 42.48% of the vote, while her rival, Andra Soni, won 57.62% of the vote, according to the quick count by Charta Politika.

That said, her defeat does not mark the end of dynastic politics in Banten. Dimyati Natakusumah, Andra Soni’s deputy, represents another political dynasty that has dominated Pandeglang Regency since 2000. Dimyati was the Regent of Pandeglang from 2000 until 2009. Dimyati’s wife, Irna Narulita, was later elected as Pandeglang Regent, serving from 2016 until 2024. Their son, Rizki Aulia Rahman Natakusumah, was elected to the House of Representatives in 2019 and 2024. Dimyati’s sister, Dewi Setiani, is also running in the Pandeglang regional election in 2024, and she is expected to win, maintaining the Natakusumah dynasty’s grip in the regency.

In North Sumatra, Bobby Arifin Nasution, the son-in-law of former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, won a landslide victory over his rival, Edy Rahmayady. His election win is a big boost for the former president’s attempt to build his own political dynasty. In South Sumatra, the Deru dynasty retained its dominance after Herman Deru emerged victorious in the province’s gubernatorial election and his younger brother, Lanosin, won the Ogan Komering Ulu Timur election.

In South Sulwesi, Andi Sudirman Sulaiman, the younger brother of Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman, is expected to win the province’s gubernatorial election, according to quick count results. Their younger brother, Andi Asman Sulaiman, is contesting in the Bone Regency election, and is also projected to win the most votes.

In general, dynastic politics is gaining ground across the country.  My research with Amalinda Savirani  found that at least 605 candidates linked to political dynasties took part in this year’s regional elections. This figure is nearly double the number of dynastic candidates who ran in the same regional elections in 2017, 2018, and 2020.   

Ahalla Tsauro on pilkada and single candidates

Almost all single candidates in the 2024 regional elections are expected to win the electoral contests, according to quick count results. They mostly won majority votes (between 60-80 percent of the total vote). However, we need to highlight the fact that in some regions such as Gresik in East Java and Brebes in Central Java, the blank boxes gained 30 to 40 percent of the vote. In one polling station, the blank box actually won against the unopposed election contender. This shows that public disapproval of single-candidate elections is still quite significant.

It is likely that many voters voted for single candidates because they thought that they had no other choice, although we should not rule out the possibility that money politics was also a factor. If empty boxes win, a re-election will be conducted the following year. During the absence of leadership, a caretaker from the local government will be in charge.

Titi Anggraini on the quality this year’s pilkada

The 2024 regional elections were held under less-than-ideal circumstances. Taking place in the same year as the legislative and presidential elections means they occur amidst incomplete political consolidation by the local branches of the parties, who have not had enough time to prepare their best candidates. Meanwhile, voters are still caught up in the excitement of the 2024 general elections.

In general, the pilkada is running fairly smoothly, but recurring issues remain, such as voters not being listed on the voter rolls, polling station officers refusing voters without specific forms, and voter confusion due to unfamiliarity with the candidates.

In some regions, even on voting day, many people remain undecided about voting because the available candidates do not align with their political aspirations. Some voters have voiced their dissatisfaction through a protest movement, GERCOSS (gerakan coblos semua, or marking all candidates on the ballot), as a way to protest against political party decisions that do not reflect their aspirations.

In terms of voter turnout, it is likely that participation in the 2024 pilkada will be no better than the elections held during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The other problem is that the political narratives during the pilkada remain heavily Java-centric, focusing on the controversies involving the elite in Jakarta. This trend is exacerbated by the recentralization of candidate nominations by the 2024 Regional Elections Law, which now requires approval from national party leadership (DPP). As a result, the candidates running in these elections are often seen as choices favoured by Jakarta elites rather than reflecting local preferences.

Jakarta elites are ruining democracy in the regions.