Photo by Budi Candra Setya for Antara.
President-elect Prabowo Subianto will likely appoint a military figure to head the Defence Ministry when he steps into office in October 2024. As a former army general who now serves as defence minister under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Prabowo is expected to further marginalise civilian politicians in the country’s defence sector.
Chances are slim that the Gerindra Party leader will appoint a civilian politician to replace him as defence minister. This is not only because he is a politician with a strong military background, but primarily because he needs to have a close ally to lead the Defence Ministry to keep his stranglehold on the institution. The person in question, according to many observers, is Gen (ret.) Sjafrie Sjamdoeddin, who now serves as Prabowo’s special advisor at the ministry.
Sjafrie was an adjutant of former president Soeharto. He served as the Jakarta military commander during the 1998 May riots that led to the strongman’s downfall, events that also involved Prabowo as Commander of the Kostrad (army Strategic Reserve). In 2009, Sjafrie was appointed deputy to defence minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
And, in addition to all those credentials, Prabowo and Sjafrie’s friendship goes all the way back to their early days in the military. They are both of the class of 1974.
Even before his inauguration, Prabowo has shown an inclination to bring his trusted people into the Cabinet. In July, President Jokowi appointed two Gerindra politicians as deputy ministers in his final Cabinet reshuffle. Gerindra treasurer Thomas Djiwandono, Prabowo’s nephew, was appointed Deputy Finance Minister II, while Gerindra politician Sudaryono, Prabowo’s former personal assistant, became Deputy Minister of Agriculture. In August, Jokowi tapped Gerindra deputy secretary-general Angga Raka Prabowo as Deputy Communications and Informatics Minister.
Continuing Jokowi’s legacy
Meritocracy problems aside, it is clear that Sjafrie’s appointment as defence minister would add to the pressure on Indonesia’s fragile democracy by further weakening civilian oversight of its defence sector.
If he appoints Sjafrie, Prabowo will be continuing Jokowi’s existing policy of keeping the Defence Ministry under the control of people with military background. Jokowi’s appointments of Ryamizard Ryacudu (2014–2019) and, later, Prabowo (2019–present) as defence minister were controversial because they were a marked departure from the post-Soeharto tradition of always appointing civilian politicians lead the ministry (with the exception of Agum Gumelar, who was briefly a caretaker in the role from July to August 2001) .
The Defence Ministry serves as a bridge between the government and the Indonesian military. It should be a platform where civilian policy makers can translate policy preferences into military orders in order to establish professional armed forces. But under Jokowi, not a single academic expert has been appointed an official at the ministry.
It seems that appointing a figure with a military background as defence minister is meant to facilitate an even greater increase in the number of military figures occupying strategic positions in the ministry. Prabowo’s move to the ministry, for instance, was followed by the recruitment of a group of active and retired military officers.
It is no secret that the TNI is struggling with a large number of middle-ranking and high-ranking officers with no functional roles, also known as non-jobs. Assigning military officials to positions in the ministry is seen as a partial but quick solution to this problem.
The implications of this policy are clear. It will lead to unbalanced weightings of military and civilian figures within the ministry. The military perspective will be overly dominant in shaping policy directions. The result could be a decrease in the transparency of military activities, making it even harder for soldiers’ activities to be monitored, let alone controlled, by civilians.
The military in general often has limited expertise in policymaking, leading to inaccurate policy formulation and often leading officers to act politically. Furthermore, poor information sharing due to non-transparency of information disclosure often leads to differences of opinion and miscalculation in responding to issues.
Will Prabowo change course?
Regardless of the challenges they have faced, Indonesia has had capable civilian defence ministers. Juwono Sudarsono – the first civilian defence minister – is noted for initiating the Minimum Essential Force, doctrine. This later became a guiding principle for national development planning in the defence and security sector.
The role of a defence minister is a complex one. The military is required to be professional as mandated by the post-Soeharto reforms like TNI law (No. 34 of 2004), but is also expected to modernise its weaponry to address internal and external security challenges on a limited budget.
This makes it imperative that the next government balance the composition of military and civilian figures within the ministry. To do that, it must appoint a civilian to lead the defence ministry.
Is this something that Prabowo is likely to do? Don’t hold your breath.
