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Indonesian voters will go to the polls on Wednesday to elect their local leaders in their first-ever nationwide simultaneous regional elections (pilkada). The upcoming electoral contests will mark the end of a busy election year, with a new president and lawmakers sworn in a few weeks ago.
The elections will be held in 545 provinces, regencies and municipalities, making the whole event one of the largest elections in the world. The size alone is impressive, but what do these elections mean for the country?
Certainly, for many Indonesians, local elections are one of the ways they can improve basic public services in their hometowns, by changing or keeping their governors, mayors and regents. That said, this round of pilkada is more than just about “local politics”.
It is not unusual for local elections to reflect political dynamics at the national level, with the heated 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election being the prime example of this. However, recent political developments suggest that the stakes are particularly high in this election round, as it increasingly looks like the results of these elections will inform the nation’s political dynamics for the next five years.
This is because, as suggested by many analysts, this pilkada has become a battleground for the new oligarchic alliances formed after the 2024 presidential election: the Prabowo Subianto-Joko Widodo alliance and the Megawati Soekarnoputri-Anies Baswedan alliance. This means it is important to know who is running in these elections
What’s at stake?
The regional elections are critically important for the Prabowo Subianto-Joko Widodo alliance. This alliance is backed by the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM), which initially comprised 10 parties, including the Gerindra Party, the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), the Democratic Party, the Crescent Star Party, the Gelora Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party, and the Garuda Party. Three other political parties—the National Awakening Party (PKB), the NasDem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)—joined Prabowo’s big-tent coalition after the general elections. Only one party – Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – has said no.
The new president, Prabowo, has a stake in the election. Even with a huge coalition at the national level, he cannot afford to have a regional leadership in a strategic region that could become as a thorn in the side of his administration. The former general appears hell-bent on building a strong support for his government – soon after his election, he even said he wanted to lead the country without an opposition.
This explains why Prabowo, along with Jokowi, has been pulling strings in the regional elections. Prabowo has openly endorsed KIM-backed regional head candidates, including Ridwan Kamil in Jakarta and Ahmad Luthi in Central Java. Controlling the battleground provinces will help him consolidate his power now, but it will also be key to his re-election bid in 2029. That is also the reason why Jokowi has been spending his first few weeks as regular citizen campaigning for KIM-backed election contenders.
For the former president, having his allies as leaders in the densely populated provinces in Java, particularly Jakarta and Central Java, is indispensable for the survival of his nascent political dynasty. If Prabowo and Jokowi can retain their alliance in the next five years, Jokowi’s son, Gibran, wlll have the chance to run again as Prabowo’s VP. He might even want to contest the election against the incumbent.
The stakes are also high for the PDI-P and former presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. In a twist of fate, the PDI-P has forged a coalition with Anies in the Jakarta gubernatorial election despite being sworn enemies during the latter’s term as Jakarta governor. The party is now capitalising on his support and that of its own cadre, Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, to win the votes of Jakarta’s voters, many of whom are loyal supporters of the two former Jakarta governors.
For the PDI-P, the regional elections are crucial. It is now the only de-facto opposition party after parting ways with former president Jokowi, who left the party to endorse Prabowo in the February presidential election. Winning the elections in key electoral provinces is its only chance to increase its leverage against its former member, who it sees as a traitor.
Anies believes the Prabowo-Jokowi coalition has been working to keep him from electoral contests.
For him, joining forces with the PDI-P is perhaps the only way to stay relevant in Indonesian politics and keep his hopes for another presidential bid alive until 2029.
Ahokers and Anak Abah (Anies’ loyal supporters) are perhaps strange bedfellows. But there is no doubt that the Anies’ endorsement of the PDI-P backed candidate pair in Jakarta — Pramono Anung and Rano Karno— marks the beginning of the PDI-P-Anies alliance as a counterforce against the Prabowo-Jokowi dominance.
The key battleground provinces
There are at least four key battleground provinces in which the new oligarchic alliances are competing fiercely for dominance. Most of these are located in Java, the country’s most densely populated island, which hosts more than 50 percent of the national electorate.
Below is a short overview of the battleground regions, why they matter for the national elite, and the state of the races.
Jakarta
Jakarta is widely seen as a springboard for national leadership. Jokowi, for example, was Jakarta governor when he won the presidential election in 2014. While the city has lost its status as the special capital region, it retains its status as the country’s political and economic hub. It is political centre-stage with a national spotlight.
In 2017, the capital became a locus of elite conflict pitting Prabowo and Jokowi ahead of the 2019 presidential election. Prabowo supported Anies, while Jokowi was rooting for Ahok. The election was brutal, with hundreds of thousands of people mobilized to hold sectarian rallies on the streets of Jakarta against Ahok over blasphemy accusations. Anies won and Ahok was convicted and jailed, which is why their new alliance is so surprising for many.
Now three pairs of candidates are competing for the city’s top job this year. They are KIM-backed Ridwan Kamil and Suswono, PDI-P-backed Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, and independent candidates Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana Abiyoto. The latest political surveys have shown that the Pramono-Rano pair is leading the polls, garnering the support of between 38 percent and 46 percent of respondents. The Ridwan-Suswono pair is trailing the frontrunners with an electability rate of between 34 and 39 percent.
Central Java
Central Java is the electoral stronghold for both the PDIP and Jokowi. While the PDI-P retains its dominance in the legislative election in the province, Jokowi, a native of Solo, managed to dent its popularity with voters. In 2019, the party gained 29.56 percent of the vote in the province. In 2024, the figure dropped to 27.35 percent.
In other words, the battle for Central Java is personal for the PDI-P. The party backs the Andika Perkasa-Hendri Prihadi pair, while the KIM coalition supports the Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin pair. Andika is a military general and son-in-law of former spy chief A. M. Hendropriyono, a close ally of Megawati, while Ahmad Lutfi is a police general and a former chief of the Central Java Police. He is a close ally of Jokowi.
It’s hard to determine the state of the race in Central Java. Pollsters have released different survey results about which of the two pairs is leading the race.
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East Java
East Java is traditionally an electoral stronghold of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), a religious organization that wields strong political influence. NU and the political parties associated with it, mainly the National Awakening Party (PKB), are major supporters of former president Jokowi. The PDI-P traditionally form an alliance with NU to win votes in East Java, but in this regional election, they are competing against each other.
KIM endorses current East Java governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa in the East Java election. The PDI-P, meanwhile, is fielding its own cadre, former Surabaya mayor Tri Rismaharini, to challenge the incumbent candidate. The latest polls have shown that Khofifah is leading the race by a wide margin.
North Sumatra
North Sumatra is the largest province outside Java, with a population of about 15 million people. It has long served as a key battleground province in the elections. It now serves as another locus for the proxy battle between Jokowi and the PDI-P.
The KIM coalition has nominated Medan mayor and Jokowi’s son in law, Bobby Nasution, in the gubernatorial election. The province, thus, serves as one of the key pillars for Jokowi’s political dynasty. Bobby is competing against the incumbent candidate, North Sumatera governor Edy Rahmayadi, who is backed by the PDI-P. Political surveys have shown that Bobby enjoys a comfortable lead against his rival.
