Photo from instagram/pdipperjuangan.surabaya
On 27 November 2024, Indonesia will hold simultaneous regional elections (pilkada) in 545 provinces, regencies and municipalities. This is a massive electoral process that, at a glance, suggests Indonesia’s democracy remains vibrant. However, a closer look into the individual races offers a grimmer picture.
This is because the number of one-horse races in the regional and provincial elections — where only one candidate contests the elections against a blank box — has risen sharply over the years, from just 3 in 2015 to 37 in the current election round. These single-candidate elections will be held in 32 regencies, 5 municipalities and the West Papua province.
Why are there so many single-candidate races in Indonesia’s regional elections?
A systemic problem
The rise of single-candidate elections is a systemic problem.
Indonesia’s political system imposes strict regulations on independent candidates seeking to compete in elections. In reality, only those backed by a political party or a coalition of political parties can run. This is tied to another problem: political parties tend to form big-tent coalitions to increase their chances of winning elections. This forces election candidates to compete for a few election tickets — in many cases, there is only one up for grabs.
The flawed system, coupled with the political pragmatism on the part of political parties, has inevitably led to the emergence of single candidate pairs in many regions. Surabaya, East Java, is a good example. Here the Eri Cahyadi and Armuji candidate pair is supported by a massive coalition of 18 political parties, leaving only an empty box on the ballot paper as the competition.
The trend towards single-candidate races has also increased this year because regional elections are increasingly more connected to national politics. In fact, regional elections have become proxy battles for the competing elite alliances at the national level.
The big-tent coalition of political parties supporting the Prabowo Subianto administration, known as Koalisi Indonesia Maju (Advance Indonesia Coalition, KIM), wants regional heads elected in the upcoming pilkada who are friendly to the government. In Jakarta, for example, KIM supports the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono candidate pair, who are competing against, first, the candidate pair backed by opposition party, PDI-P, Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, and, second, independent candidate pair, Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardhana. A similar pattern can be seen in other key battleground provinces such as Central Java, East Java, and North Sumatra.
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This reflects the fact that local election hopefuls often rely on the endorsement of political elite figures in Jakarta to win nomination, while the national elite tend to support those deemed likely to represent their interests. This explains why local politicians tend to align themselves with the government’s programs.
The unopposed candidate pair running in Trenggalek, East Java, Mochamad Nur Arifin and Syah Muhammad Natanegara, are an example of this. They initiated a program known as the Nutritious Lunch program for elementary school students, which is in line with the flagship free lunch program of the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Ramabuming Raja administration. It was no surprise that their candidacy was backed by KIM.
The reflects the cartel-like system of Indonesian politics, which is a form of collusion between political parties to stay in power. Under this system, a coalition of political parties will often nominate the candidate — either incumbent or not — that they believe will best serve their interests at the local level. A typical cartel party will therefore have no reservations about joining forces with its rivals, if that is necessary to achieve this aim, and its maneuvers may not always reflect its political alliances at the national level.
This cartelisation of Indonesian politics is clearly undermining electoral competition and driving up the number of one-horse electoral races (see map below).
Bad democracy
The rise of single candidates competing against blank boxes is a symptom of the declining quality of Indonesia’s democracy. One-horse elections deny voters the right to have a competitive and transparent election. The current electoral system makes elections more exclusive, reserved only for the oligarchic elite and their clients, and barring independent and quality candidates. This suggests a shift from genuine democracy to a procedural democracy that is incapable of fully addressing the aspirations of voters.
It is critical that this problem is addressed as soon as possible. Indonesia cannot afford to allow cartelised candidate selection and one-horse elections and to become the norm in the future, as political dynasties are today. Democracy is meant to serve the people, but it is being also be co-opted to benefit the political elites. This alarming development calls for a second wave of political reform, especially regarding electoral candidacy.
It does not help that President Prabowo Subianto is aiming to rule without opposition as his government seeks to expand his coalition. This is done by, among other ways, by aligning local government agenda swith that of the central government. It is likely that the KIM coalition will meddle in local politics to tighten its stranglehold on the country’s body politic.
