Photo from instagram/djarotsaifuhidayat
On 2 January 2025, Anies Baswedan and Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama — once bitter political rivals – attended a gathering at the City Hall in Jakarta, where they were seen enjoying a friendly chat with other former Jakarta governors (with the exception of Ahok’s predecessor, Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo). The event, “Bentang Harapan JakASA”, was organised to mark the 500th anniversary of Jakarta this year.
Ahok and Anies seemed to enjoy teasing the public about their political plans, hinting at a possible alliance between them, a scenario that — if realised — could be a game-changer in the 2029 presidential election.
The political spectacle, also attended by governor-elect Pramono Anung, was striking, given that Anies and Ahok were such deadly enemies in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election, arguably the country’s most polarising regional election ever.
While it is hard to predict whether Ahok and Anies’ reconciliation was genuine, it certainly reflects changing elite configurations in Indonesian politics after the 2024 presidential election. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is now serving as the only opposition party to the Jokowi-backed Prabowo Subianto government, and so Ahok, a PDI-P member, now finds himself in the same boat as his former enemy, Anies, a key political enemy of both Jokowi and Prabowo.
Their first collaboration as allies began in Jakarta, once the scene of their public rivalry.
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Anies-Ahok collaboration in the 2024 Jakarta election
The 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election featured two contenders: former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil and the eventual winner, senior PDI-P politician Pramono Anung. However, this was not the battle Jakartans had hoped for.
Many pollsters pointed out voters wanted a rematch between Anies and Ahok. The Litbang Kompas survey from July 2024, for example, placed Anies as a frontrunner in the election with an electability rate of 39%, followed by Ahok with 34.5%.
That the two political figures were not on the ballots may explain the low turnout for the 27 November 2024 election. Voters simply did not get the rematch they wanted.
But while neither contested the election, Anies and Ahok still played a critical role in shaping its outcome. Both men have been credited for helping Pramono defeat Ridwan, who was backed by a bigger coalition led by Jokowi and Prabowo.
Pramono started his election campaign with his electability rate hovering at just 1 percent. Yet, as the campaign went on, this changed dramatically. The turning point was when Anies decided to meet with the Pramono-Rano Rarno pair instead of the then more popular Ridwan-Suswono pair. After that meeting, public support shifted towards the former.
It is hard to play down the contribution of ‘Anak Abah’ or ‘Children of Abah’ (the nickname of Anies’ supporters) and Ahokers to Pramono’s victory. Both Anies and Ahok showed their influence could significantly shape the very competitive elections in Jakarta. This is why speculation has been rife about their potential collaboration in national politics.
That said, the possibility of their joining forces for the national elections 2029 hinges on whether the PDI-P is willing to embrace Anies and, realistically, the chances of that are not good.
PDI-P’s ideological baggage and political pragmatism
The PDI-P still has reservations about endorsing Anies in any electoral contestations. This is reflected by the fact that even though Anies had the highest popularity and electability in mid-2024 according to multiple pollsters, the party refused to give him their gubernatorial nomination, citing ‘ideological differences’.
In 2017, Anies was accused of riding a wave of religious conservatism to defeat Ahok in the Jakarta election, sparking fears of the growing influence of Islamist groups in Indonesian politics. The election was preceded by a series of street rallies that led to Ahok’s prosecution and jailing for controversial remark about the Qur’an they believed was blasphemous. After winning that election, Anies made attempts to portray himself as an inclusive and pluralist leader, but his political enemies continue to highlight his relationship with Islamist groups.
Against this is PDI-P’s pragmatism. The party is currently under severe political pressure following its decision to expel Jokowi and his family members, with its secretary-general, Hasto Kristiyanto, now facing bribery and obstruction of justice investigations by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). Politically speaking, the party is being held hostage by the Hasto case, forcing it to adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Prabowo’s administration (which includes President Jokowi’s son).
In this context, the mild tone of Megawati’s speech at the party’s 52nd anniversary celebrations, and growing speculation over a potential meeting between Megawati and Prabowo, are being seen as indications that the PDI-P is reluctant to have an all-out confrontation with the ruling coalition.
The party is set to hold its five-yearly congress in April 2025. Speculation about a potential takeover of PDI-P by Jokowi is intensifying, a scenario that could force the PDI-P to form a strategic alliance with Prabowo to fend off the former president. But Prabowo is uncomfortable with Anies, who remains critical of his government and could challenge him again in 2029. If Ahok, as one of its members, decides to run for election with Anies, this could pose a serious risk to the PDI-P itself.
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Does Anies still have a shot at presidency?
After Pramono-Rano victory in Jakarta, several former advisors to Anies while he was governor, known as the Team for Development Acceleration (TGUPP), were listed as members of Pramono’s transition team. However, it is not clear whether they will stay on after inauguration.
Anies is still seen as the face of opposition and even the ‘antithesis’ of the Prabowo government. Anak Abah are widely known on the social media as opposed to Prabowo’s policies. The group has organised several events such as “Ubah Bareng”, “Humanities”, and Anies Bubble,” both online and offline , to criticise government policies. However, without a proper political channel, their voices may gradually become mere noise.
Anies has said he is planning to establish a civic organisation (ormas), a stepping stone toward forming a political party. Rumours have it that Ahok will also take part in this new ormas, though several PDI-P politicians have brushed off this speculation.
If it happens, the ormas could serve as a political platform for Anies’ supporters, who are currently spread across a range of different communities, while also providing a platform for his journey towards the 2029 presidential election.
However, there is still no clarity on when or how this ormas will be formed. Moreover, with a team dominated by former TGUPP members, most of whom are technocrats rather than politicians, Anies’ political path will not be an easy one.
The Constitutional Court’s ruling on the presidential threshold may offer Anies a greater opportunity to run again as a presidential candidate in 2029. He can still leverage his popularity to become a vote magnet for political parties willing to endorse him.
But it is hard to say, however, if those parties would include the PDI-P. While Anies may have a chance to contest the election again, in the grand scheme of things, the possibility of a potential alliance with Ahok may be little more than a political gimmick at this point.