Is Jokowi still a political force?

Many have questioned the fate of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo after his presidency ended on 20 October. Will he really quit politics? Will his allies abandon him or even turn against him? Or will he remain politically relevant?

Two weeks after leaving the State Palace and transferring his official position to President Prabowo Subianto, it looks like Jokowi is not retiring from politics, as he once claimed he planned to do. He did return to Solo in Central Java, the small city where he grew up and started his political career. But the former Solo mayor does not intend to sit on his veranda and reflect on his political career. The “blusukan” president is not done with politics yet. Here’s why.

Jokowi ‘loyalists’ in Prabowo’s government

The earliest sign that Jokowi will not descend into political oblivion anytime soon is that many of his ministers have kept their positions in Prabowo’s ‘Red and White’ cabinet. The new president retained 12 of Jokowi’s ministers in his ‘fat’ Cabinet of 48 ministers and five state agency heads. Among Jokowi’s former ministers are Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto as coordinating economic minister, former National Police chief Tito Karnavian as home affairs minister, and respected economist Sri Mulyani as finance minister.

But perhaps the biggest win for Jokowi is that Prabowo decided not to immediately replace the leaders of two key law enforcement institutions: the National Police and the Attorney General’s Office (AGO). Jokowi is known to have had a strong influence within both institutions, which are still led by his loyalist political appointees: Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo and ST Burhanuddin.

This all means that, at a glance, the Prabowo government looks a little like Jokowi’s third term, with Gibran Rakabuming Raka serving as vice president. Given Gibran’s father, Jokowi, played a critical role in helping Prabowo secure power in the February election, it makes sense that the new president would try to return the favour.

While it is true that these ministers are now working for Prabowo, and not Jokowi, they are at least well-positioned to continue Jokowi’s flagship programs. It is possible that Prabowo could later reshuffle his Cabinet and remove all Jokowi’s loyalists but that will not happen any time soon.

This means that, for at least the first few months of Prabowo’s term in office, Jokowi – directly or through Gibran – will still be in a position to mobilise the state apparatus to further his personal and dynastic interests if he wants.

The arrest of Jokowi’s top critic

The recent arrest of a high-profile political dissident on corruption charges is the clearest indication that Jokowi still has political clout. On 29 October 2024, the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) detained former trade minister Thomas Lembong for his alleged role in a corruption case revolving around the government’s decision to import raw sugar between 2015 and 2016. He was accused of issuing a permit for a private company to import 105,000 tons of raw sugar when the country had a surplus of sugar. The state suffered Rp 400 billion in state losses because of his decision, according to prosecutors.

While it remains to be seen whether the AGO has a strong case against him, it is hard to ignore the political nature of the case. Lembong is more than just a former Jokowi minister who fell out hard with the president in the latter’s first term. He is also a close ally of Anies Baswedan, Jokowi’s political archenemy. In fact, he was a key figure in Anies’ presidential campaign in 2023 and 2024, and even outshone Anies’ running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar, as the face of the “change” platform the campaign was running on. More importantly, Lembong has been publicly extremely critical of Jokowi. Anies has defended Lembong as a man of integrity, repeating the question he repeatedly asked during the election as to whether Indonesia is a country that is built on the rule of law or the rule of power.

 

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Speculation is rife that Jokowi was behind the AGO’s move. “The King of Solo is terrifying,” a senior journalist told me when asked about Lembong’s arrest. Even President Prabowo’s Gerindra Party is wary of how the public would perceive AGO’s move, saying that it is essential that the agency provide strong evidence to support its investigation into Lembong. “Without a clear and detailed explanation, the graft probe … may create a perception among the public that the Prabowo government is abusing the law as a political instrument,” Gerindra lawmaker Habiburokhman said.

While there is no tangible evidence to prove the case against Lembong was orchestrated by Jokowi, it fits a pattern. Some scholars argue that weaponisation of law enforcement agencies to achieve political ends became a feature of Jokowi’s administration, particularly after the 2017 Jakarta election.

Influencing regional elections

In any case, regardless of all the speculation about Jokowi’s clandestine power plays, he is still openly engaging in practical politics. In his first few weeks as a regular citizen (he does not hold any formal positions in any political party), Jokowi spent his time meeting with regional head candidates backed by the ruling coalition.

On 29 October 2024, for example, he met the Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin candidate pair for Central Java gubernatorial election, in a clear sign of endorsement from the former president. Central Java has now become a proxy battleground province for Jokowi and his former party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which nominated the Andika Perkasa-Hendrar Prihadi pair in the contest.

This reflects the fact that PDI-P cuts its ties with its former member, Jokowi, after he chose to back Prabowo instead of the party’s nominee, Ganjar Pranowo, in the last election. The party is now the only opposition party in the national legislature, the DPR, and is backing candidates opposed to those favored by the former president.

This is why Jokowi has also hinted his willingness to campaign for former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil in Jakarta, another high-stake gubernatorial election. Ridwan, backed by the Prabowo-Jokowi coalition, is running against the PDI-P-nominated candidate, Pramono Anung, who was able to qualify for the race at the eleventh hour.

 

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Man of the people – and the oligarchy?

There is no doubt that Jokowi has retained strong grassroots support,  with the latest surveys showing that his approval ratings ranged between 55 percent and 68 percent in his last days in office. These surveys, released by Indikator Politik Indonesia, Saiful Mujani Research Consulting (SMRC), and Litbang Kompas, indicate his poll numbers fell slightly from about 70 percent earlier this year, but they also affirm his persistent popularity among the people.

Jokowi may have fallen from grace among a large segment of Indonesia’s political class who are disillusioned by what they consider to be the former president’s assaults on the nation’s democratic institutions. But, taking the poll results at face value, it seems he is still considered by the rest of the population to be the man of the people. This places Jokowi in a strong political position.

More importantly, Jokowi is also popular among the oligarchic elite, many of whom backed his campaigns and then that of Prabowo and Gibran.

It appears the oligarchs see Jokowi as viable political figure who can best serve their collective interests –  and he seems ready to capitalise on that support to consolidate his personal power and build his nascent political dynasty.