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On 20 October 2024, Indonesia’s State Palace witnessed its first ever direct dynastic succession. Outgoing president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, became the youngest person ever to be sworn in as Vice President. He was inaugurated along with President Prabowo Subianto, who had picked him as a running mate in the 2024 presidential election to cement his alliance with his former rival, Gibran’s father.
In 2020, I wrote that political dynasties have become the new normal in Indonesia’s political landscape. I argued that the culprits for the rise of political dynasties in Indonesia are the poor institutionalisation and pragmatism of political parties seeking electoral benefits. In other words, I focused on the supply side of the electoral market.
At that time, there was a dearth of data on voters’ political attitudes towards dynastic politics. Now we have sufficient data to gauge voters’ perceptions of political dynasties – the supply side of the electoral market. This information is critical for developing a more comprehensive understanding of the rise of dynastic politics in Indonesia.
It is suggested here that the emergence of political dynasties, including Jokowi’s, has been facilitated by Indonesian voters’ indifferent, if not even supportive, attitude towards dynastic politics.
Indonesian voters’ attitude towards dynastic politics
A survey I conducted with the help of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) four months before the 2020 simultaneous regional elections found that 38.8 percent of respondents showed an ambivalent attitude towards dynastic politicians. This means that they would not necessarily vote for dynastic politicians, but they also do not automatically reject them. More importantly, 37.3 percent of respondents showed a tendency to vote for dynastic politicians. Only 21.8 percent of respondents indicated they were unlikely to vote for dynastic politicians.
A survey conducted by Indikator in late October–early November 2023 supports the hypothesis that Indonesian voters are relatively indifferent and even tolerant towards dynastic politics. 42.9 percent of respondents stated that they are ‘indifferent’ to dynastic politics, while another 9.6 percent are ‘not concerned’ about this kind of politics. Only 39.2 percent stated that they were ‘worried’ about dynastic politics.
A comparison of these results with an Indikator survey conducted before the declaration of the Prabowo-Gibran pair in early October 2023, suggests there has a significant increase in voter tolerance for dynastic politics.
The study in early October 2023 showed that only 33.7 percent of respondents expressed indifference to dynastic politics. 47.9 percent of respondents said dynastic politics was ‘quite worrying’. This means that there has been an increase of 9.2 percent in the number of respondents who expressed indifference to dynastic politics. At the same time, there was a decrease of 8.7 percent in the number of respondents who expressed ‘concern’ about dynastic politics.
Furthermore, the Indikator survey in late October and early November showed that 52.6 percent of respondents stated that political dynasties were not a problem so long as they still went through the direct election process. Only 36.3 percent of respondents stated that political dynasties are problematic for Indonesian democracy even if voters directly elect them.
The shift in voter attitudes and tolerance towards dynastic politics aligns with the political elite’s attempts to normalise it. For example, Prabowo Subianto rhetorically questioned whether it was wrong for dynasties to want to serve the people. He also emphasised his family’s legacy in politics. “We are a dynasty of patriots,” he said.
President Jokowi also rejected accusations that he was building a political dynasty. He said that the decision to vote or not to vote for his eldest son was in the hands of the voters, not the elites or political parties, a comment echoed by Gibran.
Those comments seemed to deny the fact that Gibran’s eligibility to compete in the 2024 presidential election was, in fact, contingent on the influence of his uncle, Anwar Usman, then the chief justice of the Constitutional Court. Anwar has been accused of influencing other Constitutional Court justices to grant a petition to remove the age limit for presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the 2017 Election Law for regional heads. The ruling paved the way for Gibran, who had been mayor of Solo, to contest the election.
Anwar was later held guilty of breaching the court’s Code of Ethics by the court’s Ethics Council because he did not recuse himself despite his blatant conflict of interest in this case. The Ethics Council decision, however, did not render the court’s ruling invalid.
Concerns have also been raised over Jokowi’s alleged interference in the presidential election that helped the Prabowo-Gibran pair win. The former president was accused of doling out social assistance and mobilising the state apparatus ahead of the election day to tip the balance in favour of Prabowo and his eldest son.
Curbing the proliferation of dynastic politics
It is almost impossible to end dynastic politics in Indonesia. What might be done is to slow down the growth rate of political dynasties and create a more level electoral playing field, especially ahead of the regional elections in November 2024.
There are at least four ways to achieve this goal. First, providing political education to the public about the dangers of dynastic politics. This must be carried out using the simplest possible narrative and language, through alternative media channels such as Facebook, Instagram and TikTok.
Second, the availability of information channels where people can monitor elections in their respective regions can also increase voter awareness of the presence of dynastic politicians.
Third, we need to increase public awareness of the non-dynastic candidates with a good track record competing in regional elections.
This leads to the fourth strategy: strengthening civil society oversight of the regional head election process. This means creating alternative channels other than the Election Supervisory Agency where people can report election fraud.
In the end, the only people who can resist the rise of dynasties in Indonesia are the voters who have been supporting them.
